Byron Donalds Insider Trading Claims: What His Stock Trades Show

Byron Donalds insider trading claims show up as his national profile rises and his STOCK Act filings keep coming. We do not claim he broke the law. Public data from a relatively recent window shows a mixed picture: disclosed buys trailed the S&P 500 a bit, while trade timing sits near a coin flip—with weak buy dates and stronger sell dates.

The short answer

Question	What our data shows
Did his reported buys beat the market?	No. About 18% vs about 24% for the S&P 500 on the same dates
Did he pick unusually good days to trade?	Mixed. About 49% overall (50% is pure luck). Buys look weak; sells look better

So filings do not currently show Donalds as a market-beating buyer—and they do not show a clear overall timing edge either.

Did his buys beat the market?

Here's how we measure it. We take the stock purchases Donalds disclosed, estimate how those buys did, and compare that to buying the S&P 500 (via SPY, a fund that tracks the index) with the same money on the same days.

On 67 purchases we could price since October 2024, Donalds's disclosed buys returned about 18%. The matched S&P 500 path returned about 24%. He came in slightly behind in a fairly short window.

Names he discloses often include TTD, BRO, PGR, CMG, and PYPL, plus some BTC crypto-related filings. That mix is more mid-cap and specialty than a pure mega-cap tech basket.

One caveat: this is only disclosed stock purchases since late 2024—not a full net-worth portfolio, and not every sale.

Did he time the market?

"Timing" asks: when Donalds bought or sold a stock, was that a better day than a random day for that same stock?

Think of 50% as a coin flip.

Measure	Score	vs 50% luck
Overall	49%	−1 point
Buys	35%	−15 points
Sells	65%	+15 points

• We scored 72 trades across 43 stocks (medium confidence).

49% overall is essentially a coin flip. Dig deeper and the split is sharp: buy timing at 35% is well below chance, while sell timing at 65% looks better. Headlines that imply he “knows when to buy” are not supported by the buy side of these scores.

Putting both together

• Market returns on buys: slightly behind the S&P 500 in our recent window.
• Trade timing: flat overall—weak buys, better sells.

That combination does not prove or disprove insider trading. It simply shows where public disclosures point today. As more filings arrive, both numbers can shift.

Track this on Politician Stock Tracker

See Donalds's live numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at his Byron Donalds stock tracker page.

Disclaimer

Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements or legal findings. This article does not allege insider trading. Not legal or investment advice.