Dan Crenshaw Insider Trading Claims: What His Stock Trades Show

Dan Crenshaw insider trading claims show up whenever his filings hit the news. We do not claim he broke the law. Public STOCK Act data paints a quieter picture than the headlines: his disclosed buys made money, but they lagged the S&P 500—and his trade timing looks like a coin flip.

The short answer

Question	What our data shows
Did his reported buys beat the market?	No. About 111% vs about 127% for the S&P 500 on the same dates
Did he pick unusually good days to trade?	Not overall. About 50% (50% is pure luck)

So filings do not show a standout “genius investor” profile—closer to average timing and buys that trailed the market.

Did his buys beat the market?

Here's how we measure it. We take the stock purchases Crenshaw disclosed, estimate how those buys did, and compare that to buying the S&P 500 (via SPY, a fund that tracks the index) with the same money on the same days.

On 14 purchases we could price since March 2020, Crenshaw's disclosed buys returned about 111%. The matched S&P 500 path returned about 127%.

That is not a bad absolute result—he still made money on those buys. But it is not beating the market either. His most-disclosed names include TSLA, FAS (a leveraged financial fund), SPY, AMZN, and BA—a mix of single stocks and index-style exposure.

Readers searching insider-trading angles often assume strong outperformance. On disclosed buys only, the public record shows the opposite versus the S&P 500.

Did he time the market?

"Timing" asks: when Crenshaw bought or sold a stock, was that a better day than a random day for that same stock?

Think of 50% as a coin flip.

Measure	Score	vs 50% luck
Overall	50%	even
Buys	42%	−8 points
Sells	63%	+13 points

• We scored 23 trades across 12 stocks (medium confidence—smaller sample than the busiest traders in Congress).

50% overall is exactly what random luck predicts. Buy timing at 42% is a bit worse than chance; sell timing at 63% looks better—but with a small sample, that split can shift as new filings arrive.

Putting both together

• Market returns on buys: trailed the S&P 500 in our window.
• Trade timing: dead heat with random overall.

That is a different story from politicians with strong market-beating buys and weak timing (like Nancy Pelosi). Crenshaw's filings look more like unremarkable timing plus buys that lagged the index—not a pattern that screams a hidden edge in public data.

None of this proves or disproves insider trading. It only shows what is in the disclosures.

What filings still leave out

• Motives and non-public information.
• Full net worth—only line-item stock trades with dollar ranges.
• Reporting delays (see late disclosures).

Track this on Politician Stock Tracker

See Crenshaw's live numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at his Dan Crenshaw stock tracker page.

Disclaimer

Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements or legal findings. This article does not allege insider trading. Not legal or investment advice.