Dan Crenshaw Insider Trading Claims: What His Stock Trades Show

Dan Crenshaw insider trading claims circulate whenever his filings hit the news—but what do public STOCK Act disclosures actually show? We do not allege illegal insider trading. The data paints a more mixed picture than the headlines: positive absolute returns on disclosed buys, but behind matched S&P 500 purchases on the same dates—and no clear timing edge overall.

The short answer

Lens	Crenshaw's data	What it means
Returns (performance card)	111% on priced buys vs 127% matched SPY	Disclosed purchases gained, but trailed the benchmark (~0.9×)
Timing (timing card)	50% overall vs 50% luck baseline	Coin-flip timing on trade dates—no strong edge

So filings do not show a standout “genius investor” profile on either dimension—closer to average timing and lagging matched SPY on buys.

Returns: positive, but behind SPY

On 14 disclosed stock purchases we could price since March 2020 (amount-weighted), Crenshaw's estimated buy strategy returned 111% — while matched S&P 500 purchases on the same dates returned 127%.

That is not a bad absolute outcome, but it is not beating the market on the performance card. His most active disclosed tickers include TSLA, FAS (a leveraged financial ETF), SPY, AMZN, and BA—a mix of single names and index exposure.

Readers searching insider-trading angles often assume strong outperformance. On disclosed buys only, the public record shows the opposite versus matched SPY.

Timing: sells better than buys, overall neutral

The timing card scores whether each trade landed on a better-than-random day on the same ticker:

Metric	Score	vs 50% luck baseline
Overall timing	50%	0 points
Buy timing	42%	−8 points
Sell timing	63%	+13 points

• 23 trades scored across 12 tickers (medium confidence—smaller sample than top congressional traders).
• Window: all time in our model.

50% overall is exactly what random luck predicts. Buy timing at 42% is slightly worse than chance; sell timing at 63% is somewhat better—but with a limited sample, that split can shift as new filings arrive.

How to read both cards together

• Performance → “Did his reported buys beat buying SPY on the same days?” No—they trailed in our window.
• Timing → “Did he pick unusually good days on each stock?” Not overall—dead heat with random.

That is a different story from politicians with strong SPY-beating returns and weak timing (e.g. long-run stock selection without calendar skill). Crenshaw's filings look more like unremarkable timing plus benchmark-lagging buy returns on what we can price—not a pattern that screams hidden edge in public data.

None of this proves or disproves insider trading. It only shows what is in the disclosures.

What filings still omit

• Motives and non-public information.
• Full net worth—only line-item stock trades with dollar ranges.
• Reporting delays (see late disclosures).

Track this on Politician Stock Tracker

Compare Crenshaw's performance and timing cards on Politician Stock Tracker at his Dan Crenshaw stock tracker page.

Disclaimer

Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing metrics use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements or legal findings. This article does not allege insider trading. Not legal or investment advice.