Did Byron Donalds Beat the Stock Market? | Politician Stock Tracker

Did Byron Donalds beat the stock market? On the stock purchases he has disclosed since October 2024, our answer is no—at least in this window. Those buys returned about 18%. Buying the S&P 500 with the same money on the same days returned about 24%. He made money in absolute terms in many cases—but still trailed simply matching the index. That is a narrow lens on STOCK Act disclosures—not his entire wealth.

The short answer

Question	What our data shows
Did disclosed buys beat the S&P 500?	No — about 18% vs 24%
How many buys?	67 purchases we could price since October 2024
Did he pick great days to trade?	Near a coin flip — about 49% vs a 50% luck baseline

Beating the market on what he bought and beating it on when he traded are different questions.

How we compare him to the market

Imagine this: every time Donalds disclosed a stock purchase, you bought the same amount of the S&P 500 (through SPY, a fund that tracks the index) on that same day. Then you compare the two paths.

Donalds's disclosed buys: about 18%
S&P 500 on the same dates: about 24%

His most-disclosed names include TTD, BRO, PGR, CMG, PYPL. This is a relatively short recent window that can shift as more filings arrive.

Byron Donalds disclosed stock buy returns vs matched S&P 500 purchases

Limits to keep in mind: disclosure forms report dollar ranges, not exact share counts. This measure covers disclosed stock purchases only—not every asset class. Full details live on his Byron Donalds stock tracker page.

Timing is a separate question

Some people hear "beat the market" and mean "he knew the perfect day to buy." That is trade timing—and we measure it separately.

50% is roughly what random luck looks like. Donalds's overall score sits around 49%:

Measure	Score	vs 50% luck
Overall	49%	-1 points
Buys	35%	-15 points
Sells	65%	+15 points

With medium confidence and 72 scored trades across 43 stocks, treat this as essentially in line with chance.

Byron Donalds stock trade timing vs random luck on the same stocks

Track this on Politician Stock Tracker

Follow Donalds's numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at his Byron Donalds stock tracker page—or browse politicians beating the market for wider comparisons.

Politician Stock Tracker — congressional stock trade data

Disclaimer

Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements. Not investment advice.