Did Dan Crenshaw Beat the Stock Market? | Politician Stock Tracker

Did Dan Crenshaw beat the stock market? On the stock purchases he has disclosed since March 2020, our answer is no—at least in this window. Those buys returned about 111%. Buying the S&P 500 with the same money on the same days returned about 127%. He made money in absolute terms in many cases—but still trailed simply matching the index. That is a narrow lens on STOCK Act disclosures—not his entire wealth.

The short answer

Question	What our data shows
Did disclosed buys beat the S&P 500?	No — about 111% vs 127%
How many buys?	14 purchases we could price since March 2020
Did he pick great days to trade?	Near a coin flip — about 50% vs a 50% luck baseline

Beating the market on what he bought and beating it on when he traded are different questions.

How we compare him to the market

Imagine this: every time Crenshaw disclosed a stock purchase, you bought the same amount of the S&P 500 (through SPY, a fund that tracks the index) on that same day. Then you compare the two paths.

Crenshaw's disclosed buys: about 111%
S&P 500 on the same dates: about 127%

His most-disclosed names include TSLA, FAS, SPY, AMZN, BA. The priced-buy sample is relatively small, so new filings can move the numbers.

Dan Crenshaw disclosed stock buy returns vs matched S&P 500 purchases

Limits to keep in mind: disclosure forms report dollar ranges, not exact share counts. This measure covers disclosed stock purchases only—not every asset class. Full details live on his Dan Crenshaw stock tracker page.

Timing is a separate question

Some people hear "beat the market" and mean "he knew the perfect day to buy." That is trade timing—and we measure it separately.

50% is roughly what random luck looks like. Crenshaw's overall score sits around 50%:

Measure	Score	vs 50% luck
Overall	50%	+0 points
Buys	42%	-8 points
Sells	63%	+13 points

With medium confidence and 23 scored trades across 12 stocks, treat this as essentially in line with chance.

Dan Crenshaw stock trade timing vs random luck on the same stocks

Track this on Politician Stock Tracker

Follow Crenshaw's numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at his Dan Crenshaw stock tracker page—or browse politicians beating the market for wider comparisons.

Politician Stock Tracker — congressional stock trade data

Disclaimer

Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements. Not investment advice.