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Did Donald Trump Beat the Stock Market?
Politician Stock Tracker
Did Donald Trump beat the stock market? On the stock purchases he has disclosed since January 2025, our answer is no—at least not in this window. Those buys returned about 8.5%. Buying the S&P 500 with the same money on the same days returned about 9.5%. That is a close race he lost by a little—not a verdict on his entire fortune.
The short answer
| Question | What our data shows |
|---|---|
| Did disclosed buys beat the S&P 500? | No — about 8.5% vs 9.5% |
| How many buys? | 703 purchases we could price since Jan 2025 |
| Did he pick great days to trade? | Unclear — about 55% vs a 50% luck baseline (buys weaker, sells better) |
Beating the market on what he bought and beating it on when he traded are different questions. On the first, he trailed. On the second, the picture is muddy.
How we compare him to the market
Imagine this: every time Trump disclosed a stock purchase, you bought the same amount of the S&P 500 (through SPY, a fund that tracks the index) on that same day. Then you compare the two paths.
- Trump's disclosed buys: about 8.5%
- S&P 500 on the same dates: about 9.5%
His most-disclosed names include META, MSFT, AVGO, AAPL, BA, and NVDA. Owning big tech and industrials in early 2025 did not, in this comparison, beat simply matching the index on those purchase dates.
Limits to keep in mind: disclosure forms report dollar ranges, not exact share counts. Our window starts in 2025, so it is shorter than decade-long Congress comparisons. Trusts and other assets sit outside this measure. Full details live on his Donald Trump stock tracker page.
Timing is a separate question
Some people hear "beat the market" and mean "he knew the perfect day to buy." That is trade timing—and we measure it separately.
50% is roughly what random luck looks like. Above that can look like skill; below can look like bad luck. Trump's overall score sits around 55%:
| Measure | Score | vs 50% luck |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 55% | +5 points |
| Buys | 44% | −6 points |
| Sells | 60% | +10 points |
With low confidence and 259 scored trades across 19 stocks, we would not call this a proven edge—especially when buy dates score below chance.
Busy filings, late filings
Trump discloses a lot—about 1,087 transactions in our coverage. He also appears on our late disclosures list. Late reporting means the public sees trades after they happen. You could not have copied them in real time from these forms alone.
Track this on Politician Stock Tracker
Follow Trump's numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at his Donald Trump stock tracker page—or browse politicians beating the market for wider comparisons.
Disclaimer
Data compiled from public OGE financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements. Not investment advice.