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Did Donald Trump Beat the Stock Market?
Politician Stock Tracker
Did Donald Trump beat the stock market? On disclosed stock purchases we can price since January 2025, the answer in our data is no—Trump's estimated buy strategy returned 8.5% versus 9.5% for matched S&P 500 purchases on the same dates and sizes. That is a narrow, amount-weighted lens on OGE filings—not his entire wealth or every asset class.
The short answer
| Question | Trump's data |
|---|---|
| Beat matched SPY on reported buys? | No — 8.5% vs 9.5% (~1 percentage point behind) |
| Sample | 703 priced purchases since Jan 2025 |
| Timing edge on trade dates? | 55% overall vs 50% luck — low confidence; buys 44%, sells 60% |
Beating the market on filings and beating it on individual trade timing are different questions. Trump trailed on the first in our window; the second is inconclusive.
Performance vs matched S&P 500
Our performance card simulates: if you had bought what Trump disclosed buying, in the reported dollar ranges, on the filing transaction dates, how would that stack up against buying SPY with the same cash on the same days?
- Trump (disclosed buys): 8.5%
- Matched SPY: 9.5%
- Headline on his page: trailed SPY on reported stock buys
Top disclosed tickers by activity include META, MSFT, AVGO, AAPL, BA, and NVDA—heavy mega-cap tech and industrials. Holding those names through early 2025 did not, in this model, outperform simply matching the index on the same purchase dates.
Important limits: OGE ranges are coarse. The window starts in 2025, so it is shorter than decade-long congressional comparisons. Trust and other holdings sit outside this card.
Timing: a separate metric
Searchers asking whether Trump "beat the market" sometimes mean perfect trade timing. Our timing card tests that directly:
| Metric | Score | vs 50% luck |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 55% | +5 points |
| Buys | 44% | −6 points |
| Sells | 60% | +10 points |
With low confidence and 259 scored trades across 19 tickers, we would not call this a proven timing edge—especially when buy dates score below chance. See the full breakdown on his timing card.
Context: volume and disclosure lag
Trump is one of the busiest filers we track (1,087 transactions in timing coverage). Busy disclosure streams and late filings (he appears among leaders on our late disclosure page) mean public data arrives after the trades—not a live feed you could have traded in real time.
Track this on Politician Stock Tracker
See Trump's live performance and timing cards on Politician Stock Tracker at his Donald Trump stock tracker page—or browse politicians beating the market for wider comparisons.
Disclaimer
Data compiled from public OGE financial disclosure filings. Return and timing metrics use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements. Not investment advice.