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Did Josh Gottheimer Beat the Stock Market?
Politician Stock Tracker
Did Josh Gottheimer beat the stock market? On the stock purchases he has disclosed since January 2017, our answer is no—at least in this window. Those buys returned about 30%. Buying the S&P 500 with the same money on the same days returned about 75%. He made money in absolute terms in many cases—but still trailed simply matching the index. That is a narrow lens on STOCK Act disclosures—not his entire wealth.
The short answer
| Question | What our data shows |
|---|---|
| Did disclosed buys beat the S&P 500? | No — about 30% vs 75% |
| How many buys? | 919 purchases we could price since January 2017 |
| Did he pick great days to trade? | Near a coin flip — about 51% vs a 50% luck baseline |
Beating the market on what he bought and beating it on when he traded are different questions.
How we compare him to the market
Imagine this: every time Gottheimer disclosed a stock purchase, you bought the same amount of the S&P 500 (through SPY, a fund that tracks the index) on that same day. Then you compare the two paths.
- Gottheimer's disclosed buys: about 30%
- S&P 500 on the same dates: about 75%
His most-disclosed names include MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, GOOG, LLY. He files more trades than almost anyone in Congress—activity is not the same as beating the market.
Limits to keep in mind: disclosure forms report dollar ranges, not exact share counts. This measure covers disclosed stock purchases only—not every asset class. Full details live on his Josh Gottheimer stock tracker page.
Timing is a separate question
Some people hear "beat the market" and mean "he knew the perfect day to buy." That is trade timing—and we measure it separately.
50% is roughly what random luck looks like. Gottheimer's overall score sits around 51%:
| Measure | Score | vs 50% luck |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 51% | +1 points |
| Buys | 49% | -1 points |
| Sells | 54% | +4 points |
With high confidence and 2,967 scored trades across 453 stocks, treat this as essentially in line with chance.
Track this on Politician Stock Tracker
Follow Gottheimer's numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at his Josh Gottheimer stock tracker page—or browse politicians beating the market for wider comparisons.
Disclaimer
Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements. Not investment advice.