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Did Mitch McConnell Beat the Stock Market?
Politician Stock Tracker
Did Mitch McConnell beat the stock market? On the stock purchases he has disclosed since September 2017, our answer is no—at least in this window. Those buys returned about 96%. Buying the S&P 500 with the same money on the same days returned about 108%. He made money in absolute terms in many cases—but still trailed simply matching the index. That is a narrow lens on STOCK Act disclosures—not his entire wealth.
The short answer
| Question | What our data shows |
|---|---|
| Did disclosed buys beat the S&P 500? | No — about 96% vs 108% |
| How many buys? | 37 purchases we could price since September 2017 |
| Did he pick great days to trade? | Near a coin flip — about 48% vs a 50% luck baseline |
Beating the market on what he bought and beating it on when he traded are different questions.
How we compare him to the market
Imagine this: every time McConnell disclosed a stock purchase, you bought the same amount of the S&P 500 (through SPY, a fund that tracks the index) on that same day. Then you compare the two paths.
- McConnell's disclosed buys: about 96%
- S&P 500 on the same dates: about 108%
His most-disclosed names include WFC, KR, LAZR, VMC, IR. Disclosed activity is heavily concentrated—Wells Fargo (WFC) dominates his top picks—so results can hinge on a few names.
Limits to keep in mind: disclosure forms report dollar ranges, not exact share counts. This measure covers disclosed stock purchases only—not every asset class. Full details live on his Mitch McConnell stock tracker page.
Timing is a separate question
Some people hear "beat the market" and mean "he knew the perfect day to buy." That is trade timing—and we measure it separately.
50% is roughly what random luck looks like. McConnell's overall score sits around 48%:
| Measure | Score | vs 50% luck |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 48% | -2 points |
| Buys | 46% | -4 points |
| Sells | 61% | +11 points |
With medium confidence and 37 scored trades across 4 stocks, treat this as essentially in line with chance.
Track this on Politician Stock Tracker
Follow McConnell's numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at his Mitch McConnell stock tracker page—or browse politicians beating the market for wider comparisons.
Disclaimer
Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements. Not investment advice.