Did Nancy Pelosi Beat the Stock Market? | Politician Stock Tracker

Did Nancy Pelosi beat the stock market? On the stock purchases she has disclosed since mid-2016, our answer is yes—at least in this window. Those buys returned about 195%. Buying the S&P 500 with the same money on the same days returned about 94% (about 1.5× the benchmark). That is a narrow lens on STOCK Act disclosures—not her entire wealth.

The short answer

Question	What our data shows
Did disclosed buys beat the S&P 500?	Yes — about 195% vs 94%
How many buys?	83 purchases we could price since mid-2016
Did she pick great days to trade?	Mixed/above chance — about 53% vs a 50% luck baseline

Beating the market on what she bought and beating it on when she traded are different questions.

How we compare her to the market

Imagine this: every time Pelosi disclosed a stock purchase, you bought the same amount of the S&P 500 (through SPY, a fund that tracks the index) on that same day. Then you compare the two paths.

Pelosi's disclosed buys: about 195%
S&P 500 on the same dates: about 94%

Her most-disclosed names include AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, AB, DIS. This is a long window covering the 2010s–2020s bull run in mega-cap tech.

Nancy Pelosi disclosed stock buy returns vs matched S&P 500 purchases

Limits to keep in mind: disclosure forms report dollar ranges, not exact share counts. This measure covers disclosed stock purchases only—not every asset class. Full details live on her Nancy Pelosi stock tracker page.

Timing is a separate question

Some people hear "beat the market" and mean "she knew the perfect day to buy." That is trade timing—and we measure it separately.

50% is roughly what random luck looks like. Pelosi's overall score sits around 53%:

Measure	Score	vs 50% luck
Overall	53%	+3 points
Buys	49%	-1 points
Sells	58%	+8 points

With high confidence and 90 scored trades across 24 stocks, treat this as directional, not definitive.

Nancy Pelosi stock trade timing vs random luck on the same stocks

Track this on Politician Stock Tracker

Follow Pelosi's numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at her Nancy Pelosi stock tracker page—or browse politicians beating the market for wider comparisons.

Politician Stock Tracker — congressional stock trade data

Disclaimer

Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements. Not investment advice.