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Do Politicians Time the Market? Congress Timing Rankings
Politician Stock Tracker
Headlines ask whether lawmakers have a trading edge—but do politicians time the market on the days they actually buy and sell? Our timing rankings score disclosed trades against random dates on the same stock. The baseline is 50% — what luck alone would produce.
The short answer
247 members currently have enough scored trades for do politicians time the market?. A timing score above 50% means buys tended to land before rises and sells before falls, relative to comparable random timing on that ticker—not versus the S&P 500.
Recent leaders:
| Politician | Timing score | Trades analysed | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Trone | 80% | 7 | Low |
| Frank Kendall | 77% | 7 | Low |
| John Fetterman | 74% | 6 | Low |
| John P Ricketts | 71% | 25 | High |
| Donald Remy | 71% | 42 | Low |
| Ladda Tammy Duckworth | 70% | 6 | Low |
| Chip Roy | 67% | 7 | Low |
John P Ricketts stands out with high confidence on 25 trades—a larger sample than most names at the top.
Timing ≠ beating the market
These are different metrics:
| Trade timing | Purchase returns | |
|---|---|---|
| Question | Good day vs random on same ticker? | Did buys beat matched SPY? |
| Baseline | 50% = luck | 1.0× = matched benchmark |
| Leaderboard | Timing rankings | Politicians beating the market |
David Trone leads timing today; Brenda Lawrence leads disclosed returns—different names, different questions.
How we score timing
- Method:
matched_random_trade_timing_v1— each trade compared to random comparable dates on the same asset. - 50% ≈ average luck; >50% ≈ favorable timing on average.
- Confidence rises with more independent trades across more tickers.
What we do not claim
- Good timing does not prove insider knowledge or illegal activity.
- Scores can shift as new filings arrive—especially with low confidence and few trades.
Track this on Politician Stock Tracker
Explore Congress-wide timing and individual politician cards on Politician Stock Tracker. Start at do politicians time the market?.
Disclaimer
Data compiled from public STOCK Act and OGE financial disclosure filings. Timing scores are statistical summaries of disclosed trades, not audited performance attestations. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.