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Josh Gottheimer Insider Trading Claims: What His Stock Trades Show
Politician Stock Tracker
Josh Gottheimer insider trading searches often assume an edge—he files more disclosed stock trades than almost anyone in Congress. We do not claim he broke the law. Public data tells a humbler story: massive activity, weak buy returns vs the S&P 500, and timing near a coin flip.
The short answer
| Question | What our data shows |
|---|---|
| Did his reported buys beat the market? | No. About 30% vs about 75% for the S&P 500 on the same dates |
| Did he pick unusually good days to trade? | Not really. About 51% overall (50% is pure luck) |
The busiest trader is not the best performer on these measures.
Did his buys beat the market?
Here's how we measure it. We take the stock purchases Gottheimer disclosed, estimate how those buys did, and compare that to buying the S&P 500 (via SPY, a fund that tracks the index) with the same money on the same days.
On 919 purchases we could price since January 2017, Gottheimer's disclosed buys returned about 30%. The matched S&P 500 path returned about 75%.
That is one of the largest buy samples in Congress—yet roughly 40% of what matching the index would have returned. Top names by trade count include MSFT (216 trades), AAPL, TSLA, GOOG, and LLY—big tech and growth stocks that did well for the market overall, but not proportionally in his disclosed buy stream.
He also appears on our largest congress stock trades list for outsized MSFT purchases. Size and frequency are not the same as beating the market.
Did he time the market?
"Timing" asks: when Gottheimer bought or sold a stock, was that a better day than a random day for that same stock?
Think of 50% as a coin flip.
| Measure | Score | vs 50% luck |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 51% | +1 point |
| Buys | 49% | −1 point |
| Sells | 54% | +4 points |
- We scored 2,967 trades across 453 stocks (high confidence).
With nearly 3,000 scored trades, 51% overall is effectively random—there is no clear calendar skill at this scale. Slight sell-side strength is minor relative to the sample size.
Putting both together
- Market returns on buys: trailed the S&P 500 badly.
- Trade timing: near a coin flip.
Gottheimer is the cautionary tale for activity ≠ edge: more filings than almost any peer, weak returns vs the index, average timing. Insider-trading claims are separate legal questions; public filings do not show a hidden trading advantage.
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See Gottheimer's live numbers on Politician Stock Tracker at his Josh Gottheimer stock tracker page.
Disclaimer
Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return and timing figures use disclosed purchase ranges and statistical models; they are not audited portfolio statements or legal findings. This article does not allege insider trading. Not legal or investment advice.