Michael McCaul Insider Trading Claims: What His Stock Trades Show

Michael McCaul insider trading claims surface because he chairs high-profile committees and files stock trades like other senior members. We do not claim he broke the law. On the public record we can price today, his disclosed buys show small gains but trail the S&P 500—in a still-short window.

The short answer

Question	What our data shows
Did his reported buys beat the market?	No. About 3% vs about 9% for the S&P 500 on the same dates
Did he pick unusually good days to trade?	Too early to say—we do not have enough timing data for McCaul yet

So far, filings do not show standout results on returns—and we cannot yet score his trade timing.

Did his buys beat the market?

Here's how we measure it. We take the stock purchases McCaul disclosed, estimate how those buys did, and compare that to buying the S&P 500 (via SPY, a fund that tracks the index) with the same money on the same days.

Right now that covers 32 purchases we could price since February 2026—a short horizon that will expand as more filings arrive.

In that window:

• McCaul's disclosed buys: about 2.7%
• S&P 500 on the same dates: about 9.4%

That is positive in absolute terms—he made a little money on those buys—but behind the index. Recent names in filings include SPGI, MA, META, and ABT.

Important: this is not a full career track record—only what we can price from recent disclosures. Longer windows may look different as history builds.

Timing: not yet available

Unlike Pelosi, Tuberville, or Gottheimer, McCaul does not currently have enough scored timing data in our system. So we cannot yet say whether his buy and sell dates beat random days on the same stocks (where 50% is roughly a coin flip).

When timing data is available, it will answer a different question than returns: whether trade dates were unusually good, not whether holdings made money.

You can browse wider timing rankings on do politicians time the market? as more data fills in.

Putting what we have together

• Market returns on buys (now): short-window lag vs the S&P 500.
• Trade timing: no public score yet—avoid claiming calendar skill from headlines alone.

Committee roles and news cycles are not substitutes for these numbers. Neither weak early returns nor missing timing data proves or disproves insider trading—they only bound what disclosures show today.

Track this on Politician Stock Tracker

Follow McCaul's numbers as they update on Politician Stock Tracker at his Michael McCaul stock tracker page.

Disclaimer

Data compiled from public STOCK Act financial disclosure filings. Return estimates use disclosed purchase ranges in a limited recent window; they are not audited portfolio statements or legal findings. This article does not allege insider trading. Not legal or investment advice.